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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 79

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to MIN 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 37 for 12 yards (47-T.Summers). PENALTY on MIN-20-Jy.Ward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.65 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model