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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 88

New York Giants 6 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(:36) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to MIN 40, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.18 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 88, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model