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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Saturday 2024-01-13 · 20:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌨 Snow Spread 4.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

MIA
49.3%
KC
50.7%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.152 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Wind 19 mph
  • KC offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21
–
KC 22
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

MIA

Xavien Howard CB Out Foot
DeShon Elliott S Questionable Calf
Jevon Holland S Questionable Knee
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee
Jaylen Waddle WR Questionable Ankle

KC

Wanya Morris T Out Concussion
Justyn Ross WR Questionable Hamstring
Kadarius Toney WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 7
–
KC 26

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:10 TD KC (11:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 14:55 FG KC (14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. MIA 0 – KC 10
  • Q2 14:11 TD MIA (14:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-T.McDuffie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. MIA 6 – KC 10
  • Q2 07:39 FG KC (7:39) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. MIA 7 – KC 13
  • Q2 00:22 FG KC (:22) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. MIA 7 – KC 16
  • Q3 07:52 FG KC (7:52) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. MIA 7 – KC 19
  • Q4 11:12 TD KC (11:12) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 10-I.Pacheco. 10-I.Pacheco left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – KC 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 28 yards to KC 44, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-50-C.Munson.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 17%

    (7:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to MIA 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-54-L.Chenal.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (14:55) 7-H.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 51%

    (9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at MIA 10 for 28 yards (45-D.Riley).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (7:39) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 34%

    (4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill (22-T.McDuffie).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 25%

    (3:09) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:55) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to KC 39, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (:22) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:30) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to KC 27, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 17-R.James pushed ob at KC 28 for 1 yard (30-A.Ingold).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (7:52) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right guard to MIA 37 for 3 yards (90-C.Omenihu; 69-M.Pennel).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:18) 16-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to KC 28, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-30-A.Ingold.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 16 at the 31
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 70%

    (6:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 11-C.Wilson to KC 22 for 9 yards (22-T.McDuffie).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:28) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to MIA 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 11-C.Wilson ran ob at MIA 42 for 9 yards.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:09) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at KC 44 for 14 yards.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 34%

    (3:49) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 10-T.Hill.