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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 44

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(4:35) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 10-T.Hill (22-T.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model