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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(5:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right guard to MIA 37 for 3 yards (90-C.Omenihu; 69-M.Pennel).

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model