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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 3, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP