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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 5-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to MIA 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-54-L.Chenal.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.20 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model