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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 8

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 8, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model