Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(8:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 28 yards to KC 44, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-50-C.Munson.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model