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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

What Actually Happened

(6:27) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 11-C.Wilson to KC 22 for 9 yards (22-T.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.83 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP