Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

(3:18) 16-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to KC 28, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-30-A.Ingold.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.68 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model