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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 38

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(9:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end ran ob at MIA 10 for 28 yards (45-D.Riley).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.83 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model