Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 90

Miami Dolphins 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(1:55) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to KC 39, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 90, worth -5.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model