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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2023-12-31 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NO
42.5%
TB
57.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NO on 3 more days rest than TB

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
TB 25
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

NO

Lonnie Johnson CB Out Knee
Ryan Ramczyk T Out Knee
Lou Hedley P Questionable Illness
Alvin Kamara RB Questionable Illness
Isaiah Foskey DE Questionable Quadricep
Kendre Miller RB Questionable Ankle
Payton Turner DE Questionable Toe

TB

Shaquil Barrett LB Out Groin
Carlton Davis CB Out Concussion
Ko Kieft TE Out Shoulder
Mike Greene DT Out Calf
Rakim Jarrett WR Out Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 23
–
TB 13

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:08 TD NO (7:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-J.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – TB 0
  • Q2 02:00 TD NO (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 7-T.Hill for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 13 – TB 0
  • Q2 00:14 FG NO (:14) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 17 – TB 0
  • Q3 04:29 FG NO (4:29) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 20 – TB 0
  • Q4 07:56 TD TB (7:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 10-T.Palmer for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 20 – TB 6
  • Q4 03:51 FG NO (3:51) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 23 – TB 7
  • Q4 01:47 TD TB (1:47) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – TB 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (4:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to NO 16, Center-97-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 32 for 16 yards (52-K.Britt; 19-D.Moore).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:49) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to TB 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 15 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:32) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to TB 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:50) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to NO 40, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 28 yards to TB 46, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 84%

    (:14) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:07) 5-J.Camarda punts 37 yards to NO 34, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:08) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 22 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (4:29) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:34) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to NO 8, Center-97-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 19 for 11 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:06) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to TB 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 27%

    (10:38) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to TB 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 62%

    (8:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to NO 22 for 16 yards (29-P.Adebo, 32-T.Mathieu).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (3:51) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:04) 39-L.Hedley punts 51 yards to TB 34, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 46 for 12 yards (46-A.Prentice; 52-D.Jackson).