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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 82

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 28 yards to TB 46, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 40, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model