Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(13:06) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to TB 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.07 EP
56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model