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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 39-L.Hedley punts 39 yards to TB 19, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.93 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model