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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 20

New Orleans Saints 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 19-B.Grupe 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model