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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 19-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP