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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(:14) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model