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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to TB 13, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 22 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.31 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model