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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 38

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 14-C.Godwin to NO 22 for 16 yards (29-P.Adebo, 32-T.Mathieu).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model