Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 84

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

(5:50) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to NO 40, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-32-J.Hayes.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.44 EP
66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 84, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model