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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Monday 2023-12-18 · 20:15 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread -5.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PHI
56.0%
SEA
44.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Drew Lock (SEA) -0.035 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.134 EPA/dropback
  • PHI offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
SEA 22
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

PHI

Zach Cunningham LB Out Knee
Cam Jurgens G Out Pectoral
Darius Slay CB Out Knee

SEA

Jamal Adams S Questionable Knee
Nick Bellore LB Questionable Knee
D'Wayne Eskridge WR Questionable Ribs
Devon Witherspoon CB Questionable Hip
Geno Smith QB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 17
–
SEA 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:36 TD PHI (6:36) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – SEA 0
  • Q2 06:24 FG PHI (6:24) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 10 – SEA 0
  • Q2 01:45 FG SEA (1:45) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PHI 10 – SEA 3
  • Q3 10:13 TD SEA (10:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-K.Walker right guard for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – SEA 9
  • Q3 04:44 TD PHI (4:44) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – SEA 10
  • Q4 10:05 FG SEA (10:05) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. PHI 17 – SEA 13
  • Q4 00:33 TD SEA (:33) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – SEA 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to PHI 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:43) 10-B.Mann punts 61 yards to SEA 27, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-28-J.Jobe.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to PHI 13, Center-41-C.Stoll. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 16 yards (89-W.Dissly, 59-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 93%

    (8:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-J.Jones to SEA 12 for 6 yards (6-Q.Diggs).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (6:24) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (1:45) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:19) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to SEA 15, Center-45-R.Lovato. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 19 for 4 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 12 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to PHI 27, Center-41-C.Stoll. 18-B.Covey to PHI 32 for 5 yards (20-J.Love).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:08) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to SEA 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 57 yards to PHI 21, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:36) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to SEA 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 30 for 3 yards (28-J.Jobe).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (10:05) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to PHI 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 18-B.Covey ran ob at PHI 25 for 9 yards (44-N.Bellore).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 7 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

    (2:04) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to SEA 8, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-13-O.Zaccheaus.