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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 8

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 5-J.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.76 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 8, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP