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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to PHI 13, Center-41-C.Stoll. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 16 yards (89-W.Dissly, 59-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model