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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 25

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model