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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 75

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to PHI 16, Center-41-C.Stoll. 18-B.Covey ran ob at PHI 25 for 9 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model