4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to SEA 15, Center-45-R.Lovato. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 19 for 4 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -2.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model