Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(3:43) 10-B.Mann punts 61 yards to SEA 27, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-28-J.Jobe.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.18 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 88, worth -5.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model