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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 18

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-J.Jones to SEA 12 for 6 yards (6-Q.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model