Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Seattle Seahawks 10

(1:36) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to SEA 27, Center-45-R.Lovato. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 30 for 3 yards (28-J.Jobe).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.23 EP
59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model