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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to SEA 8, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-13-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.31 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model