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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread -10.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

KC
51.4%
NE
48.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Bailey Zappe (NE) -0.088 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.150 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NE on 3 more days rest than KC

Predicted Final Score

KC 23
–
NE 22
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

KC

Isiah Pacheco RB Out Shoulder
Donovan Smith T Out Neck
Justyn Ross WR Doubtful Returning from Suspension

NE

Rhamondre Stevenson RB Out Ankle
Pharaoh Brown TE Questionable Foot
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Shoulder
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Knee
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Knee
Matt Slater WR Questionable Groin
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Questionable Ankle
Tyquan Thornton WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 27
–
NE 17

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:34 TD KC (1:34) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-J.McKinnon. 1-J.McKinnon pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 07:14 TD NE (7:14) 4-B.Zappe pass deep right to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – NE 6
  • Q2 04:50 FG NE (4:50) 37-C.Ryland 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. KC 7 – NE 10
  • Q2 00:40 TD KC (:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – NE 10
  • Q3 10:32 FG KC (10:32) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 17 – NE 10
  • Q3 09:29 TD KC (9:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 25-C.Edwards-Helaire for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – NE 10
  • Q3 03:45 FG KC (3:45) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 27 – NE 10
  • Q4 08:31 TD NE (8:31) (Shotgun) 36-K.Harris up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 27 – NE 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:33) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to KC 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 17-R.James.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (9:56) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (:08) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to KC 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-R.James ran ob at KC 27 for 15 yards (45-C.Board).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:06) 5-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to NE 39, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-54-L.Chenal.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%

    (7:14) 4-B.Zappe pass deep right to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (4:50) 37-C.Ryland 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (10:32) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 68%

    (3:45) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 64 yards to KC 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-R.James to KC 26 for 18 yards (53-C.Elliss). NE-18-M.Slater was injured during the play.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:47) 5-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to NE 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 27-M.Bryant to NE 35 for 6 yards (44-Ca.Jones).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to KC 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 17-R.James.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:34) 5-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to NE 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 27-M.Bryant to NE 27 for 13 yards (31-N.Jones).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:28) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to KC 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 17-R.James.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 17 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:11) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to NE 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-40-E.Boye-Doe.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 93 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Reagor (38-L.Sneed).