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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 7

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:50) 37-C.Ryland 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 7, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model