Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 74

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – New England Patriots 0

(13:06) 5-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to NE 39, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-54-L.Chenal.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.71 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model