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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 58

New England Patriots 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(14:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to KC 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 17-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.40 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model