Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – New England Patriots 10

(11:34) 5-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to NE 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 27-M.Bryant to NE 27 for 13 yards (31-N.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.47 EP
67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model