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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 16

New England Patriots 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 4-B.Zappe pass deep right to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.12 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model