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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 11

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.79 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model