Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 67

New England Patriots 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(9:28) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to KC 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 17-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.88 EP
52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model