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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model