Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – New England Patriots 17

(4:11) 5-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to NE 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-40-E.Boye-Doe.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.63 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -2.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model