Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 85

New England Patriots 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:33) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to KC 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 17-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.45 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model