4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
DEN Away

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2023-12-03 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DEN
36.8%
HOU
63.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): +0.150 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DEN 21
–
HOU 25
Projected margin: HOU by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DEN

Damarri Mathis CB Questionable Back

HOU

Dalton Schultz TE Out Hamstring
Noah Brown WR Questionable Knee
Jake Hansen LB Questionable Hamstring
Tank Dell WR Questionable Calf
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 17
–
HOU 22

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:14 FG HOU (10:14) 16-M.Ammendola 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. DEN 0 – HOU 3
  • Q1 03:53 TD HOU (3:53) 31-D.Pierce up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-3-T.Dell was injured during the play. He is Out. DEN 0 – HOU 9
  • Q2 12:58 FG HOU (12:58) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. DEN 0 – HOU 13
  • Q2 01:27 FG DEN (1:27) 16-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – HOU 13
  • Q3 08:55 FG HOU (8:55) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. DEN 3 – HOU 16
  • Q3 04:55 TD DEN (4:55) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-5-J.Pitre, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. DEN 9 – HOU 16
  • Q4 14:21 TD HOU (14:21) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 12-N.Collins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – HOU 22
  • Q4 12:06 TD DEN (12:06) 3-R.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – HOU 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:15) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 22 yards to DEN 47, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

    (10:14) 16-M.Ammendola 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:18) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to HOU 22, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (6:00) (No Huddle) 7-C.Stroud up the middle to DEN 15 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (1:13) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to HOU 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%

    (12:58) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 35%

    (10:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to HOU 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 72%

    (3:17) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right guard to HOU 32 for 3 yards (48-C.Harris).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (1:27) 16-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to HOU 33, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 25-D.King pushed ob at HOU 40 for 7 yards (39-D.Washington).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 92%

    (8:55) 16-M.Ammendola 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to HOU 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:14) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to DEN 42, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:12) 11-C.Johnston punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:40) 11-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-M.Mims to DEN 32 for 7 yards (35-J.Hansen; 4-T.Thomas). Penalty on DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 60%

    (4:42) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 91%

    (2:00) 33-J.Williams right tackle to HOU 21 for 1 yard (25-D.King).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 13 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (:30) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to HOU 8 for 5 yards (96-M.Collins).