Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 69

Houston Texans 16 – Denver Broncos 10

(1:12) 11-C.Johnston punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.99 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model