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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 75

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 9-R.Dixon punts 22 yards to DEN 47, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.67 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP