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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 85

Houston Texans 16 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to DEN 42, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.12 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 85, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 43, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model