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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 16

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 16-W.Lutz 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model