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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 56

Houston Texans 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.39 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -1.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model